Why Coronavirus Estimates Are Higher Than China’s Official Tally | WSJ

By | February 23, 2020

– [Narrator] This massive
metropolis in the center of China is at the heart of a virus
outbreak that has gone global. The first death from the new
coronavirus outside of China. – The cruise ship, the Diamond Princess remains quarantined in Yokohama. – [Reporter] More than 71,000
people have been infected around the world. – [Narrator] In February,
Chinese officials and state media touted
a drop in the number of daily new confirmed cases. – [Narrator] But only hours later, local authorities released
data showing a dramatic jump, partially due to a shift
in the way new cases were diagnosed and confirmed. While the authorities said the
goal behind the new criteria was to let more patients
receive better treatment, this raised concerns that
the scale of the outbreak has been larger than Chinese
data had earlier suggested. – We thought there was better
transparency coming out of China but it doesn’t appear to be. – [Narrator] In response to the criticism, Beijing said it has been active and open toward cooperation with
International experts. To independently assess
the scale of the disease, groups of scientists around the world have been using mathematical modeling and their estimates so far exceed the officially reported numbers. The new virus was first
detected in December and by mid-January, the number of cases was just over 40 but epidemiologists
across the world thought that something wasn’t right when three cases were
confirmed outside of China. – How could we have three
or seven exported cases when there seemed to be
relatively small numbers? – [Narrator] Christl
Donnelly and her colleagues at the Imperial College London looked at the number of cases outside China which they call exported to calculate the scale of the outbreak. – Wuhan’s a big city. It has 19 million people in the metropolitan area and it has an International
airport and it’s interconnected. So there’re flights and people traveling to lots of places. – [Narrator] They used
similar mathematical modeling developed during the
H1N1 influenza outbreak in Mexico in 2009. – If you look at the number of cases that have been exported
and then there is a factor which you can use to then
estimate the number of cases that there were in the source region. – [Narrator] Before the
virus shut down the city, the international airport operated flights to dozens of major cities worldwide with more than 3,000 passengers traveling through the airport every day. The researchers also assumed
that 10 days likely passed between a person getting infected and the disease being detected. – But you can get an idea by looking at the number of flights that came out, what’s the population size? How many international
departures do you have on a given day? – [Narrator] The Imperial
College researchers estimated that over 1,700 people could
have been infected in Wuhan by mid-January indicating a massive gap between China’s 41
confirmed cases reported at that time and their estimates. Other researchers did
similar calculations based on the exported overseas cases and with several other variables and came to similar results. In later reports, scientists
factored in new data and their numbers were still much bigger than Beijing’s official
tally of confirmed cases. These findings give a rough picture and the margin of error remains high in part because of other
factors like the fact that human-to-human transmission
was confirmed overseas. Many people in China have been critical of how Beijing has dealt with the crisis and have been skeptical
about the official data. – [Narrator] Donnelly says that the Imperial College’s analysis is not aimed at criticizing
Beijing’s efforts but trying to look at what was going on and what might be expected from the virus. She says that there
are a myriad of reasons why China’s figures might
not reflect reality. – It’s difficult for any country, if a new disease starts in your country, there’s a lot to be
identified to begin with so when you first start, you really don’t know
what the potential is. – [Narrator] What makes it even harder to diagnose the coronavirus is that people infected
may show very mild symptoms like fever and coughing that are also common in
other types of infections. In an effort to battle the virus, Beijing has spent about $800 million, deployed thousands of medical staff and built two field hospitals in days. – China is doing many good things that’s slowing the virus and this has to be recognized. – [Narrator] While the WHO
repeatedly praised China, other public health experts
have been more critical. It took the agency nearly two weeks to get a go head from Beijing to send a group of experts to China to conduct joint research
with Chinese scientists. Epidemiologists say they’re still learning about the new virus and hope their research
will help officials in China to put effective measures in
place to tackle the outbreak.

100 thoughts on “Why Coronavirus Estimates Are Higher Than China’s Official Tally | WSJ

  1. Jun Kun Post author

    Worry about yourself Yankee, H1N1 killed over 20000 people in USA from last October, this ten years, over 300,000 people dead around the world because of H1N1 from USA, watch out!

  2. Genius Intelligence Post author

    Remember the Aids Scare, Ebola, Mad Cow Disease the Bird Flu now ask yourself how many people do you know died from any of these? The sky aint falling chicken little put your faith in God.

  3. Andres Mendoza Post author

    All cause the billionaire spoke out all of sudden 300k are Newley effected .lets talk about those 1200 a day getting burned cause people are dying everyday but they don’t want to scare us I guess turn off the tv when the media is on they just say what there allowed to say you never get the full story

  4. Robert Lee Post author

    China's costly fight is doomed to fail. They shouldn't have tried to control it in the first place.

  5. Robert Post author

    Boy the WHO lost a lot of respect that they got from WWZ (the movie) because of how long they took to respond

  6. phosphorescent Post author

    the best thing the world can do is nothing….let the virus do it’s thing and end the CCP….this virus is the only hope for the world…it’s actually a gift if you think about it…🦠🙏

  7. Hager A Post author

    If Xi and CCP never want to admit defeat (for their lies and terrorism) these will finally cost them their downfall.

  8. Bahadir Ozturk Post author

    America enemies China Iran north Korea attack them with biological weapons. America kills enemies in the world by terrorism or “biological weapon”.

  9. Micael Kling Post author

    Please note this and comment!! I think we all should get us vaccined against the common flu now, just because so we aren't misstaken for "corona cases" if we just got the flu when doing fever scanning and so on. And maybe end up in quarantine with real corona cases and may be infected by those. Please give this a thought, and comment.

  10. Daniel Rodrigues Post author

    WHITE HOUSE…….. we though transparency was better than we thought it would be….

  11. Daniel Izzo Post author

    Coronavirus treatment improvement in 48 hours ?

    Cocktail of flu, HIV drugs appears to help fight coronavirus: Thai doctors

    Panu Wongcha-um


    The drug treatment includes a mixture of anti-HIV drugs lopinavir and ritonavir, in combination with flu drug oseltamivir in large doses.

    BANGKOK (Reuters) – Thai doctors have seen success in treating severe cases of the new with combination of medications for flu and HIV, with initial results showing vast improvement 48 hours

  12. brian kurth Post author

    There is cleansing coming to the land. God, The Great Creator has created a virus, a king of viruses that wear many crowns to cleanse the lands of its sin.
    You have not yield to HIM and given your life to HIM, The King Of All Creation; therefore you will yield to the king of viruses and give your life to it.
    Fall on your knees and turn from your sin and give your life over to God by accepting His Son, The Lord Jesus Christ as your Saviour

  13. luis whatshisname Post author

    The WSJ has also have trouble recognizing the economic effects of the outbreak.

  14. luis whatshisname Post author

    WHO is at the hand of lobbyists https://www.bmj.com/content/353/bmj.i3134.full

  15. HOO WOO Post author

    Many Local governors get fired by hiding to the central governments

  16. Jie Shoji Post author

    WHO : China is doing many good things that’s slowing the virus.

    Corona : China created us. Don’t get happy too early, wait for it.

    WHO : 😰

  17. a64750 Post author

    mean while Just USA Mortality by Heart Disease, Tobacco, Alcohol is +1.2 Million a Year or +100,000 a month

  18. Jabbar JD1415 Post author

    The media in the USA is actually one year behind and as far as the outbreak being unobtainable is 90 days and that is a bad look on efforts to contain it failed MISERABLY and SADLY they did it on PURPOSE!!!

  19. Lareese Blaque Post author

    Communist China created this to stop protests. ..of course China will lie.

  20. Isaac Samuel Post author

    Ya probably 3000-5000 may have been dead with infected upto 100,000 or more

  21. Kubie Q Post author

    Don’t rule out that 5G is a weapon that creates Flu-like symptoms! This is about depopulation. The UN has had it as a global agenda for years and has been telling you this. HAVE YOU BEEN LISTENING?

  22. Jeffrey Leclerc Post author

    There are over a Million infected and 100k dead in China, and their WHO is helping the CCP dictatorship LIE!

  23. Jayde Smith Post author

    First, STOP calling it a Disease; It's a VIRUS!!! 2nd , China didn't tell the World, in order to Spread it ; DEPOPULATION plot //jmo This VIRUS HAS A PATENT ## , WAKE UP; DONE ON PURPOSE!!! ALSO, WAS THE BIOWEAPON STOLEN or BOUGHT AND PAID FOR, IN ORDER TO DEPOPULATE??? WHO STOLE IT , AND RELEASED IT ONTO EVERYONE???

  24. pieluver123 Post author

    H1N1 started in the US. Stop bullshitting and shifting the blame to Mexico

  25. pieluver123 Post author

    Estimated figures are higher than number of confirmed cases. Wow what a surprise

  26. MrXperx Post author

    Google is censoring any coverage of the coronavirus by demonetizing videos. Google and the WHO care for their funding over the lives of people.

  27. Romulus Paradise Post author

    While I agree that blaming isn't helpful in the beginning, neither is lying. You don't build two hospitals in two weeks for a minor outbreak. You don't have crematoriums overflowing with dead bodies, and then tell the world "It's OK, I got this". The WHO was complicit in this coverup, and enabled the chinese govt. to lie to people. Sorry, but all this politically correct non offending has gone beyond denying reality, and is and will kill people. Time to speak plainly, honestly, and from out hearts. China did lie, is lying, and will continue to lie because of their "face culture". In order to avoid embarrassment china will allow people to die. In order to "preserve face" china has shut down free speech, and accurate reporting. In order to be seen as "in control" china has silenced any voice that speaks the truth. china is a totalitarian, communist, despicable, and illegitimate government. Do not believe what they tell you. Do not listen when they lie. In their hearts chinese are still a brutal society of savages.

  28. Checka Minute Post author

    WHO was late telling the public that corona is very serious thats why the Department of Health in the Phil. didnt order that flights from china to be cancelled. I think its the same thing happened in some countries.

  29. Typhoon_ ABM Post author

    Did they really just show a someone on google images looking at the virus?

  30. MrRinoHunter Post author

    China bought and paid for the WHO. Don't trust anything that comes out of their mouth.

  31. Dennis Cullison Post author

    If your really wanting to build up your immune system and get many other benefits you need to buy this product! this is no joke. was used also during japan when they had the nuclear radiation problems to remove radiation. Must really share with friends as they are selling fast due to this coronavirus . @t

  32. RICARDO GONZALEZ Post author

    Fear and Control is what the Government wants let’s fight Them

  33. Jianhong Xin Post author

    learn better science, wsj: make some predictions that CAN be falsifiable instead of more fake news.

  34. I'm Sarcastic Post author

    I'm at the point now where I don't trust any government or MSM. Go research for yourself, find alternative sources of information. There have been others talking about this virus for weeks who already knew this was a problem.

    But hey, I'm just a "conspiracy theorist" 🤪

  35. Erkal Post author

    Those group of WHO experts in China stay in a hotel and analyze official data from the Chinese government. They haven’t done any kind of independent assessments.

  36. Omae Wa Mou Shindeiru Post author

    I'm happy WSJ is not one of China owned media. 👍

  37. 全球反港狗联盟Fuck all Hong Cunts Post author

    WSJ is so triggered because China deported their journalists.So they make one last fake news on china before they cant get any first gand information from CHina

  38. Smile king Post author

    Check out Estimates of SARS death rates revised upward | CIDRAP

  39. Samuel Shao Post author

    All y’all actin like America wouldn’t do the same thing

  40. Lam Par Post author

    'Official Tally ' need to work in sync with other monthly economic numbers , to avoid adverse effect to the national economy development plan. There are whole lot of other factors at play inside China.

  41. Thomas Lightningbolt Post author

    M M M My Corona…. M M M My Corona…. M M M MY CORONA!!!!!….
    Just keep to yourself, a to yourself, quarantine at home you'll have some time- Corona!!!!

  42. heyit'sRay Post author

    China is communist.
    It's the same as when Chernobyl happened – the Russian communist government didnt tell anyone, including the people living in the area that was teeming with radiation, until nearly a month after which is why you hear the stories of people who were severely affected by the radiation because they didnt evacuate immediately. Communist countries have always, always kept news from the people and other countries, and they probably always will.

  43. James B. Post author

    The corruption at #WHO exposed > https://youtu.be/AwFTZawOc9k

  44. Kain Post author

    Remember the day where the total official infections just jumped up by 15k? Neither does the media.

  45. Triscia Francescka Jardine Post author

    Tedros was praising China's handling of the situation and backslapping his pharma shill henchmen.. – meanwhile in reality global economic stability was falling apart and good healthy people in China were disappearing and being fearmongered… I would hate to see the very corrupt WHO in charge of even a teddy bears picnic… or anyone's human rights… Tedros background is as a facist btw – no surprises there…

  46. MuffHam Post author

    The covid-19 will spread or has all already spread across the planet.

    The driving factor is simple greed. Those in power do not want to effect the economy or slow it down. Even at the risk of allowing a unknown virus to infect its population. This is veing done deliberate and with sinister intentions. Possibly a attempt to reduce the world population.

    Your government dose not represent you the people. Voting is a farce a coverup. It dosen't matter who's elected little will change. Dont believe me look at the last couple of decades. Nothings really changed what dose change is smoke and mirrors to distract the voter.

    For the USA your second amendment rights mean nothing. You'll never be able to stand up and over throw the government. Sure you have firearms. But you have no Mass organization or the ability to organize in mass. No Logistics, no muster points no coordination. You'll need millions of armed citizens all working together and if no levels of the military join you. Your doomed. What good are your firearms against tanks, and warplanes? How will your tiny local militias say 5000 stand up to a army brigade? Second amendment is another smoke and mirrors the illusion you can do something when you cant.

  47. Mr. Woofless Post author

    America better be fully banning everyone from traveling citizen or not.

  48. John Daniel Hubbard Post author

    Notice: They are not counting the people who died at home, do the research. And also the poor people who are dead nailed and welded in their homes. This thing is a weapon that attacks your immune system then gives you a pneumonia-like disease that your body cannot build resistance to and if you are infected again in your weakened state you are dead. This is no doubt whatsoever a weapon gone mad and keeps mutating so no vaccine will be effective. The world must make a hard decision or we are facing an EXTINCTION LEVEL

  49. Mentoriii Post author

    Communism hasn't changed at all since the Chernobyl catastrophe, not surprised at all

  50. Jimmy Cen Post author

    Bruh, Chinese build two hospitals in 10 days while I can’t get my WiFi installed in 2 weeks…

  51. Julius Fučík Post author

    Two people go to Iran which has under 30 confirmed cases. They come back and both have been infected. What are the chances of that? Zero.

  52. You You Post author

    APRIL 2016 Nature Medicine


    “~both monoclonal antibody and vaccine approaches failed to neutralize and protect from infection~”

    A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence

  53. Keith Post author

    So China throws out WSJ reporters, and this hit piece appears, very nice. Really enjoy this cat fight

  54. Jorge Carlin Post author

    Google the virus? is this how they find the cure? google it! people do this when they don't have medicare, they google it and go to the pharmacy store.

  55. Good Bye Post author

    China always lies about their numbers. No matter what the case. Good or bad.

  56. darthvader5300 Post author

    The Kremlin has been aware of China's bioweapons activities in Wuhan for two years and developed a series of vaccines against all weaponized viruses, pathogens, bacterias, microorganisms, etc. Upon receiving reports from Russian field agents inside China of an outbreak the Kremlin quietly ordered all of it's Russian citizens to be vaccinated as part of it's normal health care program while keeping the real reasons behind it hidden. The Russians that were not vaccinated in time are those Russian civilians who are overseas. The logic is obvious. Do you expect a world wide announcement by the Kremlin that all overseas Russians must return for vaccinations? Of course that will raise suspicions and questions by many local people overseas.

  57. BabbyThor Post author

    Amazing that anyone is still trying to make excuses for the abject failure of central planning. China still utilizes the primitively impulsive practice of "shooting the messenger": being first to report a problem that you cannot solve means you are at fault, a problem compounded by the need for permission from your local commissar to ensure you are in line with the uselessly slow judgements of the ruling party.

  58. dil bedil Post author

    Always the case The numbers are always higher than the official tally

  59. E Chan Post author

    “International experts”? The fxcking WHO is the mouth piece of the communist Chinese government. The US and the west should pull out of the WHO, the UN and the International Red Cross. These organizations do nothing but travel the world in style.

  60. dxt nguyxn Post author

    Hope China learn their lesson not to eat wild animals and stuff.

  61. れいき546 Post author

    The data is more higher couse ccp known as stupid liars. If we see in uyghur n falungong case. They Will keep continue acting idiot. Try lying in Front of the truth.

  62. thibaud75014 Post author

    If you were fair, you would say same thing for all other countries, like, you need to add 2 zeros to the official numbers…
    But as always, China (and maybe not this time but also Russia) are pointed as fake numbers country.
    A media which is not fair is just a propaganda and loose it credibility.

  63. Smile Mor-phony Post author

    As if the propaganda rag Wall Street Journal reports the 'truth'. How stupid do you think we are.

  64. Shadowknight 234 Post author

    Is it just me or is this the same narrator from Vox?

  65. arnold oliver Post author

    Why do I get the feeling I've been lied to on a regular basis about the coronavirus

  66. Dong Zhang Post author

    Shame on you! WSJ really sucks! I am glad your reporters are kicked out China

  67. Steve Post author

    But wait not everyone in China is tested, of course the maths doesn't add up.

  68. Samuel Matheson Post author

    The media
    3 weeks ago: *It's just a flu u Reeecist"
    Now: OH F** ** THIS IS BAD, MUCH BAD*

  69. Andrew Goh Post author

    WSJ is a Expert of Propaganda Bias & Prejudice News for Centuries. Biggest Corrupted Organisation in the World 🌎

  70. Oswald Chong Post author

    Let's just use how virus spread on Princess cruise ship as an example to see if China is telling the truth. 3000+ people, 700+ infected and 2 died. Cruise ship ain't designed to be hospitals and virus does not get removed from the air. Thus, the cruise ship situation is far worse than Wuhan. In Wuhan, you could avoid those who are infected, and thus the spread of virus would be far lower than on a cruise ship and the death rate would be far lower.

    Using data from a closed-environment on the cruise ship, I can say that even if China under-reports, the error is mostly due to inability to obtain reliable data and the statistics match those on the cruise ship, if you consider the wide spread of Wuhan.

    So, I'd say WSJ is simply poor journalism. Thanks. Sign: A scientist who has done research and sampling since 1993. I hate fake journalism.

    Per CDC, it is extremely difficult to estimate the number of victims. There isn't a confirmed number for H1N1, MERS and SARS. Let's give China a break.

  71. T C Post author

    So many more factors that they didnt know in that uni in london! Like the 'no contact' virus cases. You cannot do the usual maths when you have a virus that more often than not does not show any symptoms! These so called experts have no idea & should stop speculating & shut up!

  72. Fullyraw1991 Post author

    Thank the Chinese for spreading it all over the world thanks ccp

  73. William P Post author

    WHO is obviously bought by China. WHO is corrupt. WHO puts politics above people lives.

  74. MoMoBB41 Post author

    nothing coming out from China can be believed. There is is video where a lady working in Wuhan lab saying she sold the test animal to the wet market. This is a biohazard bomb created by the Chinese communist party. Consumer around the world hold the keys to CCP destruction. https://youtu.be/jxUXTuWZlWE

  75. Conroy Penner Post author

    If you want to know what the United Nations has in their upcoming plans
    for the world, watch these videos. They will give you a new insight you 
    probably didn't expect.
    I hope you have the interest, smarts, and the guts to handle this information,
    it's not for the faint of heart or for closed minds. This information is about
    how the world, and the virus situation too, actually works. Are you ready?
    Put on your helmet, fasten your seat belt, hang on tight, this ride will be rough!

    From Rosa Koire:

    From Wayne Jett:

    From Joan Veon:

    Carefully research these directly related subjects (if you want the bigger picture): 
    1. High Frequency Active Aural Research Program – HAARP
    2. Ground Wave Emitting Network – GWEN
    3. Chemtrail Spray Delivery Systems
    4. Electronic Directed Energy Weapons – DEW,
    5. Project Blue Beam
    6. Military Experimental Weaponry including Weapons of Mass Destruction – WMD's
    7. Georgia Guidestones
    8. Bohemian Grove
    9. Bilderberg group
    10. Skulls and Bones
    11. Hegelian dialectic system
    12. Theosophy
    13. Ordo Templi Orientis
    14. Mystery Babylon New World Order
    15. Illuminati – the cult that hijacked the world
    16. Freemasonry new world order


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