Tony Seba: Clean Disruption – Energy & Transportation

By | August 16, 2019

100 thoughts on “Tony Seba: Clean Disruption – Energy & Transportation

  1. dimelka Post author

    I just wondering why Solar City bankrupted? Currently to install 10 Kwt solar panels cost $36,000 that can be paid off in 20 years if your average electric bill $150/month . Not make sense at all.

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  2. Idratherbsidewayz Post author

    His timelines are a little off.

    1. Cobalt that is needed for lithium ion batteries is majorly produced in the wartorn country of Congo. It is not easy to extract (byproduct of other processes) and not readily available. Unless they come up with different batteries, you'll have supply chain issues to change 95% of cars like he predicts. If someone discovers a new battery with readily available material, it could happen on his timeline.
    2. Government regulations. Oil companies are massive, they won't go down without a fight. This will delay implementation of his vision.
    3. Where do you get the energy to run all of these electric cars? Nuclear is very cost prohibitive, fission is currently in the works, but for now natural gas plants and traditional means will provide our energy. Solar and wind just don't make enough Watts for the size that you need. Maybe they'll develop better technology, but it will delay.

    There is no doubt in my mind that electric autonomous crowd-owned cars are going to be an absolute revolution.

    The point is, material availability and supply chain will disrupt his proclaimed disruption. As always with electric revolutions, batteries are the key. The disruption WILL happen, just over a longer period of time.

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  3. Sam Carey Post author

    Interesting case economically, but rests on a lot of assumptions, namely that there won't be resistance from law makers and
    society as a whole.

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  4. Colum Mulhern Post author

    Are there enough natural resources to make and renew all these solar panels and batteries?

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  5. Michael Murray Post author

    So what happens to peak car usage. I know averaged over a day they don't get used much but right now we try to use a lot of them at the same time of the day.

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  6. hanbo shao Post author

    well. I will agree most of it. but you have to admit that people always want different. (consider why people wanna dress different or drive different cars) there always a room for some group of people.

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  7. Maggie Hanna Post author

    Thank you Tony! This is the BEST TALK and I have been sharing it around the oil patch in Calgary Alberta Canada with zeel! Tony talks about the things I was telling the oil patch 6 years ago, but HE HAS THE DATA to back it up. Yeah! Technologies to watch for that will make this happen are the Vanadium Lithium Phosphate Battery for mobility, and for grid storage the Vanadium Flow Battery, and salt cavern batteries. I also like the amorphous carbon battery. In addition, I think the we have to start considering the land transportation systems and the electrical grid as ONE SYSTEM. Then we can redesign the entire thing to be completely carbon emission free using both a hydrogen highway and an electrical highway with the technology we have today. We have designed a system to do just that…. well…. a 10th draft of the the system…. it still needs some work. 🙂

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  8. Dan Michael Post author

    I agree with his predictions, but maybe a little longer than he is predicting. 1) not everyone drives cars just to get back and forth to work. Piston engine hot rods are fun to drive and will be around a long time. 2) I work in the lithium battery industry designing battery packs, it will be a while before they make a battery charge in a reasonable time, so it would be hard to take a vacation in an EV. You wouldn't load it up with all your travel stuff, to then unpack it, and repack into another car with a fresh battery. The charging time is still too long. Maybe if you planned you travel to stop and sight see, eat or other activity for a couple hours, that could work. Or maybe if they had a "battery exchange" station, that could be a possibility. 3) I worked 9 years in the solar cell industry designing machines that produced solar cells. Solar cells need a lot of sun to operate and space. Not all homes are "tree free" or have a convenient sunny place to install. If you live in the cloudy northern areas, they work, like he said, BUT you need twice as much square footage. Not everyone lives in sunny California. 4) The EV has a few moving parts and low maintenance for the moving things: BUT the electronics are very expensive if they fail, it could be very expensive to repair….for example, you could get in an accident, and fry the batteries and/or the electronics. The repair could be covered by insurance….it would be like 3/4 cost of the car to replace the battery pack and the electronics, not to mention straightening all the body out. So a minor accident to a piston car could total out the EV car. Don't get me wrong, I just bought a new 2017 Mercedes Smart EV and I love it. I use it for city driving. Oh, I live in Detroit area, its cold here, your range goes way down when you turn on the electrical resistance heater.

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  9. bombers7878 Post author

    February, 2018: God Parity has arrived in Adelaide, South Australia.
    http://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-battery-solar-now-significantly-cheaper-grid-power-51011/

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  10. Pepe Frogstein Post author

    Drinking game: 1 shot everytime he says essentially.

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  11. Steve Ulrich Post author

    We can only assume that the us govt will do it’s best to sabotage this any way they can

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  12. Dan C. Post author

    It makes all kinds of economic and practical sense for shared A-EVs to be an upcoming disruption, but my prediction is that it still won't happen as quickly as he suggests, at least in a lot of North America… for much the same reason that the already existing technology of car pooling (or even public transportation in general) is underutilized in many cities. People in North America like the convenience and independence of their own vehicle. If they want to go out for whatever reason, they want to do it now – not wait for a shared A-EV to come to them. I'm not saying it's the right attitude, but I'd be very surprised if people quickly develop the patience necessary to share that kind of infrastructure, even if it makes economic sense to do so. I can absolutely see shared A-EVs replacing taxi and ride sharing services, and there of course will be some who own their own car who will switch their mindset. But I predict the S curve in this case would level out at no higher than 50% adoption for decades. On the other hand, I do expect (and hope) that A-EVs in general are close at hand.

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  13. Patrick DiCesare Post author

    really good thought starter, but a few nits to pick, one is the tesla 3 is not 35k, not a real one anyway, closer to 50k. another is the given that he posits which is batteries getting cheaper and better at an exponential rate, with rare earth metals (look at cost curve of cobalt recently) being well…somewhat rare, there will need to be new technologies that can use other more abumdant materials in order to achieve the scale and the cost benefits. Another is the notion that the majority of people make decisions rationally. If they did, the iphone and it's ilk would indeed have been a small section of their market, also look at the current car market, what sells best is large, heavy expensive cars, trucks and suvs. Why, because people want them and can afford them. To think that people of means, particularly those that live in the burbs will not own a car in that short of a time window, seems a little too Jetsons to me. People with discretionary income may buy electric but they'll likely want control of their lives by having that car (as inefficient as that seems) sitting at their beck and call with their yoga mat, their dog carrier, ski rack etc.

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  14. ocnier Post author

    I disagree with Tony's statement of loss of individual ownership. It discounts the base line concept of "freedom" to do something on a whim without wait time or need for someone/something else, but as for the data for EV and autonomous cars I agree.

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  15. Blaine Snow Post author

    This is so hopeful for so many reasons, climate change foremost among them. However, such massive disruptions also raise huge concerns, particularly for socio-political stability. We must remember that, in democracies (or what's left of them), people vote. The disruptions he's talking about will negatively affect the lives of so many people through job loss and the need for reeducation, forcing people to adopt unfamiliar thinking and lifestyles that they could easily recoil into extreme conservatism, and do whatever they can to disrupt the disruption, conserve the status quo, and vote for people who will do the same… isn't it already happening? What are Trump, the Republicans, the evangelicals, and their gerrymandering about anyway? Populist movements and our slide into autocracy and its disregard for democratic norms and institutions is partly related to the anxiety and fear vast numbers of Americans have about these massive future disruptions of their livelihoods. It's uncertain democracies can withstand so many massive disruptions without sliding into some form of totalitarianism. Maybe I'm wrong but Seba needs to factor into his thinking the deep costs of widespread social, psychological, and emotional disruption and their political consequences as well.

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  16. Joe Smith Post author

    In my city, the transit commission is already looking at autonomous buses and bus drivers are panicking about losing their jobs.

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  17. Rosalie Bent Post author

    I recall that Electric Vehicles were going to replace petrol cars by about 1995. How'd that work out? So far they have a 0.5% share of the market and even those are largely the rich or utility companies. Joe Average doesnt want them because we dont want to recharge them over hours/days. We hate spending 10mins refuelling now.

    It might also be worth noting that if your EV is charged by a coal-fired power station, what are you saving? And if you want large-scale renewable energy be aware… I live in South Australia where where have almost 50% renewable electricity and have been rewarded by having the highest power prices IN THE WORLD. Suddenly the cost advantage of Electric Vehicles has narrowed significantly and it will only get worse.

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  18. Rosalie Bent Post author

    Oh good grief… if Electric cars are so cheap and so affordable right now, why is almost no one actually buying them? Best of all, we are being lectured on car travel by someone who DOESNT EVEN DRIVE.

    By far, the biggest problem of EVs is recharging and he ignores the problem entirely. Maybe if he actually drove, he might be aware of how cars work.

    and his comment about Australia ignores the problem that our electricity cost is 42c/kwhr

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  19. Christina Sirr Post author

    Wonder who's been sponsoring all the chemtrailling everywhere, obliterating the sun often times to the point of making solar energy less viable… hmm let me guess. What mega industry can afford and supply all the fuel for all these flights that would be threatened by solar ? 🤔

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  20. j77r77 Post author

    This guy is like the Jesus of technological economics!… Seriously, does anyone else feel like hitting the streets and preaching the good word right now?

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  21. Natural Focus Digital Post author

    Hearing Tony Seba talk about the rapid adoption of electric cars and renewable energy is so empowering and leaves me feeling really excited about the not so distant future! There is a lot of negative things occurring right now in relation to environmentalism and the fight to slow climate change. It is easy to get depressed. However, if Tony and his team are correct basic economics will drive the extremely rapid transition to renewable energy, electric cars, and autonomous cars. It is indeed an exciting time to be alive!

    Thanks to the Boulder Chapter of the Colorado Renewable Energy Society (BCRES) for bringing Tony to Boulder. I started attending BCRES meetings about 6 months ago and am really glad I started participating with this awesome group. Join their meetup to stay connected about upcoming speakers! Link: http://meetu.ps/c/21XyK/zn9cv/f

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  22. Celia Betty Post author

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  23. Kevin Dinh Post author

    wish the government of Australia had half the intelligence of this guy

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  24. cakraft24 Post author

    A huge percentage of cars in that horse VS car picture was powered by electricity. Many were steam powered. We need to back to steam, fueled by nuclear energy, just like the largest ships in the navy.
    We will still need billions of barrels of oil to supply chemicals for plastics, lubrication, medicine, …. too much to type.

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  25. dberg1964 Post author

    Ok here's the deal. How much of Tesla's cars are still subsidized by tax payers? 50%?? 40%?? Does anybody know? Tesla is how many years old now? They still haven't turned a profit!! That's taxpayers footing the bill. So does anybody know how much money Tesla receives from the government??

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  26. Koen Philippaerts Post author

    are the slides of this talk available somewhere?

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  27. Andrew Griffiths Post author

    hard to believe…but I can see it happening…soon. Lets embrace and prepare for a Safer Greener Smarter world all round

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  28. briggston1 Post author

    So he takes someone elses data, reguritates it and he's a genius?  This isn't new, and he didn't come up with it.  He's basing his predicitions on Data that someone else has already generated.  As with anything, you get better with it as you go.  Even convential fossil fuel plants are more economical than their predecessors. The steep curvatures are also a reaction from  law makers, EPA, fossil fuel cost, etc.  So,  what happens with the gasoline taxes that pay our educators, and roads are no longer there?

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  29. Buffalo_Chips Post author

    So….Here it is may 2018 and Saudi Arabia is signing a financial deal worth 200 billion with Softbank to build a 200 GigaWatt Solar installation. Its going to cover 5000 sq miles of desert. The equivalent of 200 mid sized nuclear reactors. They are building their own infrastructure to build the panels. It would not surprise me if they are doing the same for storage. Nvidia? Now has a Petaflop system the size of a foot stool. Im starting to wonder if maybe even Tony has under estimated….

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  30. Charles Jannuzi Post author

    Yes, but who would have thought that by 2018, over 40% of our electrical power comes from burning coal?

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  31. ducky 181 Post author

    These technologies should be huge for emerging countries such in Africa and Asia, allowing easy access to a unlimited amount of renewable energy in a accessible manner.

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  32. J Blackthorne Post author

    You failed to take into account that the electricity in the car had to be generated in a power plant. Unbelievable.

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  33. A Lee Post author

    This guy may be good at what he does, but his predictions are just that – predictions. His extrapolations are pretty wild and unbelievable, 2020 is just 18 months away and what he is saying is going to happen by that year is quite clearly very premature. A lot of his figures are flaky – for eg it does not cost $10,000 a year to keep a car and if he cant even get something that basic right who knows how bad his more complex numbers are. I'd like to know how he figures people will give up car ownership? People who totally live and commute in big cities, eg Los Angeles, Singapore, Tokyo, yes that makes sense, but not for the vast majority living in smaller densities. Also, he really need to tone down his use of 'essentially',it really grates after a while. Like those fucking millennials and their 'like' and 'basically'.

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  34. Glrk10 Post author

    My home’s roof is not large. How could I ever go “off grid”? I would use during the day all The solar power i generate during the day. Unless solar technology advances exponentially his predictions are bunk. He never mentions this. 1 square meter of solar panel may cost less than in the past but does it produce that much more? In other words has energy/square meter increased at same rate price/square meter has decreased. Then there is the problem solar panels are just f..king ugly.

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  35. Pooby1000 Post author

    Will oil become almost worthless, or outrageously expensive – in terms of dollars? A crash in the value of dollars could more than offset a decline in oil value related to electric cars.

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  36. mavtek Post author

    Microsoft had the 1st Smart phone as far as I remember. I was doing much of what I do on my Nexus 6p with a Windows phone in 2002.

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  37. HarpoSpoke Post author

    I smell agenda.

    You always have to be careful of that when someone says "clean energy". Already I know this is connected to the climate change topic and that is rife with agendas on both sides. You immediately have to be on guard. As expected, he eventually starts talking about oil with glee at its potential demise. He should try to hide that better. "Should I name names?" No….you shouldn't care about that if you are agenda free.

    Is he cherry picking things from the past that support his agenda and ignoring any predictions in the other direction that don't support his agenda? What about predictions like his own in this video which did not pan out as predicted? That has happened too.

    And did he ever leave out the end of those graphs on the price of oil and gas! (52:26) He moved on pretty quick to avoid addressing how much the price has dropped recently. That's dishonest spin right there. There is always a reason why people leave out inconvenient details.

    The fact that he is talking about it at all raises suspicions. If he is right, the market will decide it. People will flock to a cheaper option. (I know I will) There is no need to make a speech about it to convince anyone. So…why is he trying to convince people of something that he is sure will happen? Pretty pointless hour of his time to just point out the "inevitable". This speech betrays that he isn't as sure about it as he claims.

    And calling it "disruptive"? That sounds suspicious too. Sounds like the way a crusader would term it when they are "fighting for change". This would be a huge benefit to everyone and that's hardly a "disruption". Climate change advocates typically talk in terms of "sacrifice" and bemoan the comfort and convenience of modern life.

    I see he has also touted windmills (it's on the logo by his head)….so that's a red flag. Supporting 19th century technology is illogical. Never made sense when nuclear energy is the "cleanest", cheapest, and safest energy of them all …but climate change advocates were against it. Agenda causes illogical thinking.

    I hope he is right because traffic jams suck and are caused by human limitations. Freeing up parking spaces in cities is also a huge benefit. And harnessing the power of the sun seems like the logical future too. I guess we'll find out if he is right or just another one of many climate change prophets with a failed prediction. (including those who predicted oil shortages many times over the years)

    Sure would be nice to hear this from someone with less of an obvious agenda.

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  38. Cam Kirmser Post author

    When I can get 400 miles to a charge and my vehicle will charge to 100% in less than five minutes and the vehicle will perform identically or better than my ICE-powered vehicle and the overall vehicle package is comparable in cost and durability to my ICE-powered vehicle, I'll consider electric.

    Till then, it's gas, baby.

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  39. Kevin Curtis Post author

    Big challenges for utilities to accommodate non-peak generating and distributed storage around the existing, old grid. Major upgrades on the way.

    Lithium prices crashed this year. Hard to guess exactly where the investment and profits will flow with all this change. Switch away from oil will be hopeful for everyone living on the coast. Less carbon and less flooding over time. Looks like now is the right time to get out of oil energy stocks!

    I drove a friend's Tesla last year. Nobody will want a gas car once the infrastructure is in place to support electrics. No maintenance. Super quiet. Incredible acceleration. Way fun.

    The model 3 Tesla with dual drive (AWD) actually gets better mileage than the two wheel drive version. Seems impossible, but because one motor is tuned for high efficiency at lower speeds and the other is tuned for high efficiency at higher speeds, it is. Amazing engineering. We live in a time of wonderful innovation. So cool.

    I wonder if President Pinocchio or anyone in his cabinet and administration are watching videos like this while talking about bringing back coal jobs and chanting "drill baby drill?" The tax cuts goosed the economy, but the Trump tariffs are throwing stones and sand into the gears of global trade. Crazy policy.

    China is moving forward at a fast pace because many of their leaders are scientists, economists and engineers. We could learn something and start electing more politicians with STEM backgrounds.

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  40. Philippe Defossez Post author

    Technological evolution, now entering the exponential curve, is rapidly moving societal structure and decision making away from political incompetence and corruption towards civilian participation and problem solving. Now, more than ever, every individual can and should choose, either actively or passively, to participate in this historical energetic shift, for the sake of our children and possible generations to come. Every choice matters, and every decision counts.

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  41. Praveen Kakulte Post author

    An excellent walk through into the future… an eye-opener!

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  42. SpaghettiandSauce Post author

    Let me know when it actually happens. Cos I remember hearing a very similar pitch about renewables making oil worthless in the early 90s.

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  43. giorgio borelli Post author

    great presentation , till something new emerge.

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  44. Jonathan Sollender Post author

    Yes, I get the disruption. But name the investment plays by specific organizations to invest in. I already am heavily into TSLA since 2015. Who else is emerging players for solar, battery, raw material disruptors?

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  45. Manish Kumar Post author

    Thank you Tony for sharing such a valuable information.

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  46. fernyboy999aussi Post author

    In all the numbers, He forgot one important element GREED. It should be cheap to take a self driving taxi in the future but it does'nt mean it will be, just as it should be cheap to take the train or subway, but it's not.

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  47. harlon57 Post author

    Little is more toxic to the planet than batteries. From the mining of the materials to the manufacture and disposal and/or reclamation. Add to that the super energy-intensive and toxic chemicals and gases required to manufacture solar cells and there is nothing at all "green" about "green" technologies.

    From the IEEE article: "Solar Energy Isn’t Always as Green as You Think – Do cheaper photovoltaics providing solar energy come with a higher environmental price tag?"

    "Such initiatives are coming none too soon. Many people today view photovoltaics as a panacea for our energy woes, given how dirty most of the alternatives are. But that does not mean we should turn a blind eye to the darker side of this technology. Indeed, we need to consider it very carefully. And just maybe, with a sustained effort by consumers, manufacturers, and researchers, the photovoltaics industry will one day be truly, not just symbolically, green."

    Note that last part: "And just maybe, with a sustained effort by consumers, manufacturers, and researchers, the photovoltaics industry will one day be truly, not just symbolically, green."

    It's symbolically green..and "just maybe"…in the future it won't be "just symbolically green?"

    If you don't think the IEEE is a reliable source, you can't be helped.

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  48. Guillermo Martínez Post author

    5x more efficient. I doubt it. What is about energy conversión?. Electricity generation->transportation->battery->inverter->motor.

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  49. Ian Macdonald Post author

    Sales talk. The real situation is that renewables contribute less than 2% to global energy supplies. Wind outages are not six hours, they can extend to weeks. Meanwhile solar gives next to nothing in December and January. All this talk of supplying transport energy needs from renewables when they can't even cope with regular electrical demand, is just a pipedream.

    Meanwhile the perceived advantages of electric cars arise mainly from them being tax-free. If the road license and fuel were taxed as for regular vehicles, sales would cease abruptly..

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  50. Danyl Bekhoucha Post author

    There will be two other disruptions around 2030: AI Singularity (will create new knowledge exponentially and kill most jobs) and 3D printers will kill logistic and be able to print circuit board. AI and 3D printers will allow computers to improve and replicate themselves.
    This will reduce even more the number of cars because most won't have a job and won't have to leave their house to get physical objects.

    Also corn starch is compostable, you can re-heat it to 3D print new things if you want to change, improve or change the design.

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  51. Peter Hoeck-Olsen Post author

    It could be interesting with an update to this insanely interesting talk.

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  52. paul smith Post author

    Why hasn't medicine been subject to tech disruptions? Bio-battery tech could disrupt Lithium battery tech. What happens when AVs run over pedestrians?might want to keep/update your insurance. This could be an "AT&T/cell phone"-type forecast Agreed about photovoltaic produced electricity. With earth's own safe fusion reactor (our sun) any other generation except geothermal will not be cost/safety competitive:)

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  53. Todd Cory Post author

    what nonsense… 7.6 billion people (increasing at 1,000,000 every 4.5 days) facing resource depletion, overpopulation and climate change will not be living in this magic, techo-cornucopian world. we are facing the limits to growth as projected in 1972… so buckle up, and enjoy these remaining good days… because the human yeast story ends poorly.

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  54. Tim West Post author

    I appreciate this video and its insights. One quick comment is that cars have scrap value and you won't have to pay people to take a used car off of your hands. Simply take it to the scrap yard and sell it for $500 or more. Thank you Tony Seba for your research!

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  55. James Sempy Post author

    his method is very simple: he takes past data to make projections.
    PCs are different from phones, which are different from EVs …
    Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
    2020 is just tomorrow. I doubt his projections will materialise.

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  56. James Sempy Post author

    (26:13) 2020 is just tomorrow. in europe: only 3 % of new cars will be EVs , by 2020. and the subsidised price will still be higher than ICE.
    so his 2020 projections are optimistic.
    and by 2025 : boom !! ICE are dead.
    again in europe, by 2040 there will be 50 % Evs. so ICE will be there well and alive.
    too much boom, boom, boom …. in his projections.

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  57. aventador gallardo Post author

    No oil no wars no petro dollar . No American asses in foreign land. Hahaha

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  58. El Mac Post author

    I still don't think people will give up their cars, because for most cars are part of the identity, I use uber and Lyft, but I prefer to drive myself most of the time, it's just a sense of control and freedom, futurist views are too simplistic

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  59. Herb Myers Post author

    What if a shipping container could drive to the buyer of its load?

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  60. Zenny Nequin Post author

    This dude is right about the past.
    But wrong on about everything else…Just another global warming Tard

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  61. deadmanprodinc Post author

    Most neighbourhood electrical grids of single dwelling houses are not set up for each resident to charge one or more cars. Currently each block can facilitate 3-4 cars worth of 220V charging. The cost of upgrading these grids will make no financial sense, particularly in the colder regions where battery life will be seriously compromised. Then there is the issue of condo ownerns, townhouses and rental appartments and basement suites who will not be able to or won't provide the charging systems. These are serious downfalls to the great idea of world wide electric cars.

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  62. Hermann Kerr Post author

    From CES 2019, NVIDIA announces RTX2060 at $349 with 52 Teraflops

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  63. Michele Amico Post author

    Why does he assume that the cost of Li-ion battery storage will continue on the same trend?

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  64. BlackManOps Post author

    Well it's February 2019 and we're running behind, but still trending as predicted.

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  65. J Baba Post author

    Okay boom. Wa.. boom no boom but wait no its boom booooooom.

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  66. jslove777 Post author

    Dont forget inclement weather. Heat generation can be used to heat the cab. Run the heater on an EV and watch the batter range drop. Heat waste is only bad when ya dont need heat. I love my heat when temps drop below 45F. Just FYI.

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  67. jslove777 Post author

    Also this gentleman needs to get out of silicon valley and head over into small rural towns. The infrastructure will not support autonomous EVs on the levels he predicts. Yes he has some very accurate information for the big cities however inclement weather and highly specialized big vehicles will not be auto. A truck with outriggers and varying load capacities will not be fully autonomous easily.

    My point is his theories can work possibly in SF and LA. However much of the earth the tasks he predicts will still be undeveloped.

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  68. paul gifis Post author

    This guy need to face reality and realize that solar panels doesn't pop out of a unicorns ass. Oil, coal and natural gas are used to produce solar panels. Its nonsense converting coal to solar panel then having it generate little electric. The world don't need a useless middle man like solar panel. its best to just convert coal into electric. Coal, oil, and natural gas will always be around.

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  69. Chuck Norris Post author

    The tip of his hair looks like the notch on the iPhone x.😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣

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  70. Kevin Chastain Post author

    does he realize that this dream all depends on an electrical grid that is on the verge of collapse.
    you also need 5G networking to support this good look finding a signal out side of the city limits.
    I can't even get a 4G signal where I live and I live on a main state hwy.

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  71. lloyd leonard Post author

    A note about charge controllers>>>tinyurl.com/y5zdbb7g I was told by a solar engineer that to leave a controller always connected to a panel without also being connected to battery at the same will eventually burn out the controller. Be aware of this. You gave a very nice presentation; Very basic & easy to understand. Nice work.

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  72. Andrew Deluna Post author

    Ok so I am presenting a senior thesis tomorrow on why we should switch from gas vehicles to EV's and OMG this video has helped so much! I was concerned about the questions but not anymore…it is a 20 min paper and I am so ready now!

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  73. Eclipse Now Post author

    Great presentation, and I agree with many points. However, the very first question I ask about traffic and transport is why do we need so much transport in the first place? It looks like we've made an awful mistake. We tried to do the right thing and build a 'manor in the countryside' for every soldier returning from WW2. But we discovered it wasn't a manor, and it wasn't the countryside. Instead we created suburban sprawl, a car dependent lifestyle with all sorts of horrible side-effects. Please watch "Built to last": 4 minutes, and turn it up!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGJt_YXIoJI
    Then if you're keen for more, try my summary page. My main question is why is suburbia often so ugly and lacking a sense of place? Where has the village gone? It's not hard. We know how to build a successful town square: create an attractive green or square about 30m by 30m and surround it by shops and services and schools. Surround the square in walkable New Urban neighbourhoods for about 10 to 12 thousand people. It's not rocket science. But we have let developers steal the public imagination about how we are to live, and settle for expensive car dependency, traffic jams, lost productivity, isolation, alienation and psychological distress. https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/rezone/
    Indeed, suburbia is so bad for our economy, culture, and public health that it constitutes a national emergency, but most people don't even know how bad it is.
    https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/benefits-of-new-urbanism/
    So I see auto-ubers or robot-taxis as a stepping stone to reclaiming the sense of living in a village. Instead of car park spaces, let's build BEAUTIFUL attractive village town squares and create denser living arrangements around them. With robot-taxis a text away, we'll have the high tech security blanket we need to rediscover the low tech thing we've always wanted. A village. With friends.

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  74. Colin Richardson Post author

    I agree with everything except the words "10 times cheaper".. "1 10th of the price" would be correct.
    You can have 10 times more expensive, but not 10 times cheaper.

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  75. Peter Hoeck-Olsen Post author

    Nearly two years old, so according to Seba, the revolution is only three years away. I really do hope he's right, but I'm not entirely sure that we'll make it in time.

    But I have no doubt that it is the future he's describing, though we have to wait a few more years.

    Reply
  76. Ken Dibble Post author

    37:30 Robotaxi idea is highlighted here in 2017.
    Musk only mentions it first time to the public in Teslas 2019 autonomy day presentation.
    So its not such a half baked idea – others thought of it years ago and Tesla will try to implement it first. I suspect they have been working towards this concept for some years – otherwise the $Bs R&D investments in autonomy hardware/software would not pay back if it was just for individuals to use 4% of the year.
    These guys think way ahead of the rest of us – startling

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  77. Billy Jack Post author

    "…. oil demand will peak in 2020." Unfortunately, this guy is clueless. You would be much better served by studying Art Berman, James Kuntlser, etc.

    Reply
  78. Jim Price Post author

    Unfortunately, there is no Moore's Law equivalent when it comes to existing renewable energy technologies.

    "Scientists have yet to discover, and entrepreneurs have yet to invent, anything as remarkable as hydrocarbons in terms of the combination of low-cost, high-energy density, stability, safety, and portability. In practical terms, this means that spending $1 million on utility-scale wind turbines, or solar panels will each, over 30 years of operation, produce about 50 million kilowatt-hours (kWh)—while an equivalent $1 million spent on a shale rig produces enough natural gas over 30 years to generate over 300 million kWh.

    Solar technologies have improved greatly and will continue to become cheaper and more efficient. But the era of 10-fold gains is over. The physics boundary for silicon photovoltaic (PV) cells, the Shockley-Queisser Limit, is a maximum conversion of 34% of photons into electrons; the best commercial PV technology today exceeds 26%.

    Wind power technology has also improved greatly, but here, too, no 10-fold gains are left. The physics boundary for a wind turbine, the Betz Limit, is a maximum capture of 60% of kinetic energy in moving air; commercial turbines today exceed 40%.

    The annual output of Tesla’s Gigafactory, the world’s largest battery factory, could store three minutes’ worth of annual U.S. electricity demand. It would require 1,000 years of production to make enough batteries for two days’ worth of U.S. electricity demand. Meanwhile, 50–100 pounds of materials are mined, moved, and processed for every pound of battery produced."

    Mark P. Mills – The "New Energy Economy": An Exercise in Magical Thinking

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  79. charles rylatt Post author

    The biggest hurdle to autonomous cars is accountability, till that issue is dealt with, their use is moot

    Reply
  80. 1_2_Die Post author

    Fantastic talk and very impressive! At least all politicians should be forced to watch it twice. (at first it would be a bit much information to process)

    On the cost side, what are the chances for success for nuclear FUSION power plants (R&D for decades)? Any chance at all after that solar+storage disruption?

    Reply
  81. William Rowe Post author

    I really like all this, but one major thing he's forgetting. Our politicians and government. Even the new green deal types. Money, money, money. The government and politicians will find ways to tax the electricity used to pay for roads, taxes on how many panels on your car, not too mention taxes on AC/heat usage in your vehicle. That's something you can count on being "non-disruptive". The same federal government who wants this will find a way to totally screw it up, I mean that's what government does. They'll need to find new ways to get that money from the loss of carbon based taxes, and you know they will.

    Reply

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